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Why does one method out perform the other?
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Individual Forecasting Analysis Instructions
In order to complete the assignment, first read the write-up for the “Apex Frost” case study. Then, answer the questions listed below for each part of the case.
Part 1 questions refer to hiring using monthly data based on the first 18 months of operating the call center.
Part 2 offers a recommendation to management based on the analysis you conducted.
For full credit you must submit a properly formatted Business Report addressing the questions below.
Prepare a properly formatted Business Report, which includes your answers to the assignment questions. Include a cover page, and all citations and headers should be in APA format.
A total of 10 points is possible for this assignment. This includes the point values which are assigned to each question (point values are noted next to each question below). Your report should follow the prescribed assignment format, the proper writing style, and APA format.
Question 1a (3 points):
Applying the exponential smoothing method on the attached excel, choose at least two different alpha values for your model. Model do these choices change your forecasts?
Show your forecast below and attach the completed Excel template. You must show your formulas within your spreadsheet (not hard-coded numbers).
Question 1b (3 points):
Applying Linear Regression to predict call volume from head count on the attached excel show your forecast below and attach the completed Excel template. Show your formulas (not hard-coded numbers).
Question 1c (1 point):
Looking at the Mean absolute deviation value of the Exponential Smoothing model (Question 1a) and the Average Absolute Estimation Error of the Linear Regression model (Question 1b). Explain the difference between these two values. Why does one method out perform the other?
Question 1d (1 point):
What is your best forecast for July 2021? Explain and Justify the Methods used in this analysis. Consider your answers to Questions 1a, 1b and 1c and all the factors that have been described above. You may present an additional model.
Show your forecast value below and explain and justify how you came up with this forecast.
Question 2 (2 points):
Provide your recommendations to Stacy on how to modify forecasting processes and improve its accuracy.
Business Report Format
Describe your dataset
Describe and justify analytical methods
Results (or Analysis)
Results with interpretation
Descriptive statistics (how big is your dataset?)
Inferential statistics and tests
Appendices (if necessary)
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